The Canary in the Coal Mine

The stock market is down over 20% so far this year and that is very bad news for the economy. The stock market leads the economy - what happens in the stock market, happens in the general economy around 6 to 12 months later. So with this year's slide, we can be fairly sure that the forecasts for the economy - and unemployment - to bottom out in late Summer were excessively optimistic.

What do things look like now: Unemployment is now running at around 8%. Its looking like that number will get to around 12% later this year - that is a huge amount of jobs lost. To put it in perspective, think of all the people you know who have lost a job in the last year. Now double that number. That is how many people are likely to be unemployed by year end.

Since no-one is really immune, its a good idea to have a "Plan B" in case any of us are among the unfortunate 12%.